The 2008 NFL Draft is done and we finally have teams to match up with all these prospects and that means it’s time for fantasy geeks like myself to start stacking their big boards. But before I unveil my rankings over the next few weeks I though I’d give readers my rookie positional rankings with a brief synopsis of each player selected.
I’ve excluded an overall ranking because my top 10 overall would likely consist entirely of running backs. Besides, once you get past the top six or seven rookies it isn’t necessary to lump them together and rank them in an overall list because they’ll be taken in the later parts of the draft when owners should be drafting to add positional depth to their roster and looking at taking players based on need rather than best player available.
Rookie Rankings (dynasty league positional rankings in parentheses)
QB
1. Joe Flacco (2) Baltimore
The Ravens traded down and then back up to grab Flacco at 18 to be their quarterback of the future. Flacco has a big arm, but likely won’t be ready to play until late 2008 or 2009 at the earliest. I wouldn’t touch Flacco in a re-draft or dynasty league, but I’d keep my eye on him late in the season in dynasty formats.
2. Matt Ryan (1) Atlanta
Ryan’s fantasy stock is basically worthless for now. Chances are he won’t top their depth chart when the 2008 season begins and he plays for the Falcons, a team with more gaping holes than your average porn star. He should only be drafted in dynasty leagues and is worth nothing more than a very late selection as a sleeper investment even in that format.
3. Chad Henne (3) Miami
The Dolphins grabbed their QB of the future and got at an excellent value. The chances Henne starts during his rookie year are as good any of the quarterbacks selected before him, but to say his supporting cast is less than ideal is as big an understatement as saying Henne looks a little bit like Quagmire from Family Guy. I wouldn’t touch Henne in a re-draft league, but in a dynasty league I would consider him a late round sleeper.
4. Brian Brohm (4) Green Bay
This was a really good value pick for the Packers, but from a fantasy perspective Brohm has very little value. If Aaron Rodgers does falter Brohm may has a chance at some playing time and with Green Bay’s weapons on offense it makes for a favorable situation.
5. Josh Johnson (5) Tampa Bay
Johnson has a ton of upside, but it will probably take him awhile to grasp Jon Gruden’s complicated offense. He is a very intriguing pick in dynasty leagues as Jeff Garcia probably only has one season left in the tank.
RB
1. Darren McFadden (1) Oakland
McFadden lands in a less than ideal situation in Oakland. He’ll battle veteran Justin Fargas, who showed flashes of brilliance last season and was re-signed to a substantial deal this off-season. Despite the concern with McFadden being in a running back by committee situation he’s still an explosive force with game-breaking speed. I compare him to former Minnesota Viking Robert Smith, only with more tackle breaking ability and fewer durability concerns. I consider him a low level RB2 option and would feel comfortable selecting him in the fourth round in re-draft leagues and I see him as the top rookie runner in dynasty leagues. This moves Fargas from the fifth/sixth round range to the sixth/seventh round area.
2. Jonathan Stewart (3) Carolina
The second running back off the board also ends up in a less than ideal RBBC situation. Head coach John Fox likes to give veteran players first crack at the primary ball carrier gig, so Stewart will likely be more of a back-up to DeAngelo Williams. This is disappointing because Stewart is one of my favorite prospects in the draft and he’s also one of the most physically gifted. The good news for Stewart is he is more likely to get goal line because he has a much bulkier frame than Williams. Overall the Panthers drafting Stewart puts a damper on the stock for both him and Williams. I would rate both Carolina backs as sixth or seventh round selections in a one-year league and I would look at Stewart as a top three pick in a dynasty league rookie draft.
3. Rashard Mendenhall (2) Pittsburgh
Mendenhall is probably the most well-rounded back in this class and was an excellent value selection for the Steelers. This selection spells the end for Willie Parker, especially since durability has become a concern for ‘fast’ Willie after a broken leg ended Parker’s ’07 campaign. Initially Mendenhall and Parker will likely split carries, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Mendenhall was getting the majority of the reps by seasons end. The Steelers traditionally have a strong running game, but need to fill a few holes along the offensive line. Parker should now be seen as a third/fourth round selection and an RB2 in re-draft leagues and Mendenhall should be looked at in the sixth/seventh round range and as an RB3 in re-draft leagues and as a top three selection in a dynasty league rookie draft.
4. Felix Jones (4) Dallas
The Cowboys decided to take Felix Jones and pass on the more highly touted Rashard Mendenhall at pick 22. I’m not a big fan of Jones’ skill-set, but he should make for a solid compliment to Marion Barber as his abilities are very similar to those of Julius Jones, the back he replaces. In fantasy terms this pick does a lot to help solidify Barber’s stock as RB1 and first round pick in all fantasy drafts. I think Jones is a solid handcuff for Barber and worth a selection in round eight or nine in a re-draft league and as a fringe top five selection in a dynasty league rookie draft.
5. Matt Forte (5) Chicago
Forte lands on a team starved for skill position talent and with his on field ability and combination of size and speed he’ll get plenty of opportunities to make an impact. Forte could even unseat incumbent Cedric Benson as the teams starting running back. We’ll have to watch the training camp battle between Benson, who’s done nothing to solidify his status as a starter, and Forte. As of right now I’d look at Forte as a solid RB4 option and a ninth/tenth round selection in a re-draft league. His long term potential is much higher and I see him as a possibly being worth a top five selection in a dynasty league rookie draft.
6. Kevin Smith (6) Detroit
The first pick of day two could have as much immediate fantasy impact as any selection in this year’s draft. Smith goes to a team that currently has Tatum Bell, who couldn’t hold onto the ball and subsequently the starting job last season, listed atop its running back depth chart. I believe Smith, who almost broke former Lions great Barry Sanders single season colligate rushing record, could be the starter by the time the ’08 season begins. I would say Bell and Smith are both worthy of a selection in the ninth/tenth round range in re-draft leagues. In dynasty leagues Smith should be considered a top five rookie rusher.
7. Chris Johnson(8) Tennessee
This pick was a bit of a surprise as most, including me, thought the Titans would go with a wide-out in round one. This pick does make some sense as Johnson’s skill-set compliments LenDale White’s game perfectly. Johnson is the fastest back in this year’s class and can even line-up at wide receiver at times as he played the position his first two seasons at East Carolina. I don’t think this pick impacts Whites stock much and I still think he’s a fringe RB2 and worth a fifth round pick in re-draft leagues. Johnson should be seen as a handcuff for White and his value should land him in the 9-10 round area in a re-draft league and a top 10 selection in a dynast league rookie draft.
8. Ray Rice (7) Baltimore
Rice is one of my favorite sleeper running backs, but landing in Baltimore dampens his stock a bit as Baltimore’s starter Willis McGahee is coming off his best season. Rice will make an excellent handcuff choice for McGahee owners late in re-draft leagues. I think very strongly about Rice’s long term potential and consider him one of the top 10 rookies available for dynasty leagues.
9. Steve Slaton (9) Houston
The Texans crowded backfield situation becomes even more confusing with the addition of the West Virginia prospect. Slaton speed and slashing style will make for a good fit in the Texans zone blocking scheme, but he has to separate himself from Ahman Green, Chris Brown, Darius Walker and sleeper Chris Taylor to have any short term value. His long term value is fairly solid though, as Walker is the only aforementioned back that is under the age of 27.
10. Jamaal Charles (10) Kansas City
Charles is a big play threat and should make a very good compliment to Larry Johnson. With all the wear and tear Johnson has received under Herm Edwards the Chiefs would be well advised to give Charles 5-10 carries/game and give LJ a little bit of rest. I’m not as high on LJ as most (most see him as a late first/early second round selection and I wouldn’t take him until late round two), but I think Charles helps LJ a bit. Charles will probably split the back-up duties with the bruising Kolby Smith. The fact that Charles will likely have to share the back-up knocks his fantasy stock down. Charles should still merit consideration late in dynasty leagues and is should be considered a top 10 rookie running back for fantasy purposes.
11. Ryan Torain (11) Denver
Torain never lived up to the hype at Arizona State. He has solid tools, but has never really put it all together and produced like he is capable of. He lands in the running back goldmine/quagmire (no not the Family Guy character) known as Denver. If he can impress Shanahan he’ll get a shot a playing time.
12. Tashard Coice (12) Dallas
The former Yellow Jacket is a very solid, but unspectacular runner. He likely won’t get many touches with Barber and Jones in front of him, but he’s a hard worker and could make for a good triple handcuff option (it’s been done before) in deeper leagues.
13. Corey Boyd (13) Tampa Bay
Boyd is one of my favorite running back prospects in this draft. I had a tough time understanding how he fell to round seven, but stranger things have happened. He’s a jack of all trades/master of none, very similar to the Bucs current starter Earnest Graham. Boyd is a sleeper I’ll be keeping a close eye on in training camp.
14. Mike Hart (14) Indianapolis
The diminutive Michigan product lands on one of the most prolific offenses in the league. With Joseph Addai’s 2007 backup Kenton Keith getting in some legal trouble recently Hart could step in and become the handcuff option for Addai owners.
15. Jacob Hester(15) San Diego
Lorenzo Neal won’t be back in San Diego in ’08 because head coach Norv Turner doesn’t use fullbacks much in his offense, at least pure blocking fullbacks. Hester is more of a hybrid and was the primary ball carrier for LSU his senior season. Hester will likely split the back-up duties to LaDainian Tomlinson with Darren Sproles, which puts a damper on his fantasy stock. Unless Hester is named the primary back-up he isn’t worth selecting in re-draft leagues and is barely worth a look in a dynasty format.
WR
1. James Hardy (1) Buffalo
This is my favorite marriage of rookie receiver with any team to come out of this draft. The Bills needed a good receiver and Hardy’s size (6’6”) and physical ability on jump balls makes him a perfect compliment to the Bills number one receiver Lee Evans, who’s game is based in speed and quickness. Hardy should be considered a late round sleeper selection in re-draft formats and as a WR4 in dynasty leagues. He and Sweed are my two favorite rookie wide receivers because of the situations they landed in and skills.
2. Limas Sweed (2) Pittsburgh
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger asked for a big physical receiver and he was fortunate the talented 6’3” receiver fell to them. Sweed is definitely falls into very favorable situation in Pittsburgh. He will be the top jump ball target for the Steelers at wide out. Sweed should be one of the few rookie receivers of value in re-draft leagues but should still only be looked at as a late round selection. In dynasty leagues he’ll likely be my top rated rookie wide out.
3. Earl Bennett (4) Chicago
The Bears could have drafted any receiver and they would have likely been ranked high on my list to make an immediate impact because of the lack of bodies and talent Chicago has at the position. But the fact they grabbed Bennett, one of my favorite wide outs in this class, seals the deal. Bennett reminds me of Packer wide out Greg Jennings. He will definitely be on my board as late round sleeper receiver in re-draft leagues and he’s a lock as a top five rookie pass catcher in my dynasty league rankings.
4. DeSean Jackson (3) Philadelphia
The Eagles pulled off a major coup with this selection. Jackson should be able to gets some reps as a slot receiver and have some scoring chances as a punt return specialist as well. I like Jackson’s long term potential and would take him with a late pick in dynasty league, but probably wouldn’t touch him in a re-draft format.
5. Harry Douglas (5) Atlanta
The player with the best porn star name lands on a rebuilding team with a new coaching staff. Douglas is a very reliable receiver and route runner and he should have every opportunity to beat out some of the incumbent wide out busts on the Falcons roster. Douglas should currently be seen as a fringe sleeper receiver in re-draft leagues and a top five rookie receiver in dynasty leagues.
6. Devin Thomas (10) Washington
Thomas is one of the biggest boom/bust prospects in this draft. He’s going to have a tough battle on his hands with veteran incumbents Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El and fellow second round pick Malcolm Kelly for playing time. Like Avery he likely won’t be worth taking in a re-draft league and is a fringe selection in deep dynasty formats.
7. Malcolm Kelly (11) Washington
Kelly fell due to poor workouts and the Redskins happily snatched him up in the middle of round two despite the fact they had already taken receiver Devin Thomas 17 picks earlier. Kelly is big wide out who would make a solid compliment to Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, but he’ll have a tough battle for playing time with Thomas. I wouldn’t advise drafting Kelly until he solidifies himself as at least the number three on the Redskins depth chart.
8. Lavelle Hawkins (8) Tennessee
Hawkins had a better season than his more publicized teammate DeSeasn Jackson. Many scouts also feel he has a higher ceiling as a wide receiver. Hawkins lands in a good situation where he could climb the depth chart very quickly. He could be worth a late round selection in deep redraft leagues and is a solid rookie wide out selection in dynasty leagues.
9. Jerome Simpson (11) Cincinnati
The Bengals got ripped for this selection as they passed on many much more highly touted receivers. As I’ve already mentioned, rookie wide-outs typically don’t make much of an impact and considering Simpson comes from small Coastal Carolina I can’t envision him doing much of anything in 2008, therefore I can’t envision taking Simpson in any non-dynasty fantasy format and would have trouble taking him in a dynasty league.
10. Early Doucet (6) Arizona
Doucet fell further than expected, but landed in a pretty good situation with the Cardinals, even if Anquan Boldin isn’t granted a trade. If he eventually does get a shot in the desert Doucet’s speed and quickness will compliment Larry Fitzgerald abilities. As of now Doucet should only be considered in dynasty leagues, but if Boldin is dealt his stock will rise dramatically.
11. Donnie Avery (9) St. Louis
Avery was a bit of a surprise as the first wide receiver off the board at pick 33. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a very talented speed receiver who can make an immediate impact out of the slot. Rookie receivers rarely make any kind of impact and Avery likely won’t post numbers worthy of taking up a roster spot in a re-draft league, but he may be worth a shot late in deep dynasty leagues.
12. Dexter Jackson (7) Tampa Bay
Jackson is an excellent after-the-catch receiver and could make an immediate impact in Tampa as Jon Gruden isn’t afraid to utilize rookie receiver (see Michael Clayton in 2004). If Jackson can beat out a few underachieving veterans (Clayton, Ike Hilliard or Antonio Bryant) he could make some waves in his initial campaign. Jackson’s long term potential is even more enticing considering the fact that the Bucs starters from last year (Joey Galloway and Hilliard) are both well into their thirties. Jackson should be considered a late sleeper option in deep re-draft leagues and a solid WR5 prospect in dynasty leagues.
13. Andre Caldwell (13) Cincinnati
The Florida product was the second receiver taken by the Bengals and should be seen on equal footing as Jerome Simpson, at least in the short term. Caldwell and Simpson will likely duke it out with the likes of Glenn Holt, Doug Gabriel and Antonio Chatman fro the number three wide receiver spot. Caldwell is a deep sleeperwith some late round potential in dynasty leagues.
14. Eddie Royal (15) Denver
Like most other rookie wide-outs Royal likely won’t make much of an impact catching passes as a rookie, but he does bring a lot of value as a return specialist. All things considered I don’t think Royal is a draftable player, even in a dynast league.
15. Jordy Nelson (14) Green Bay
Nelson is a very solid prospect, but he’s joining a team where the opportunity for playing time will not be ideal. Nelson likely won’t beat out Donald Driver, Greg Jennings or James Jones regulating him to the Packers fourth receiver position. Barring injuries or Nelson wowing the Green Bay coaches in camp, I don’t foresee any situation where I would consider drafting Nelson, even in a dynasty format.
TE
1. John Carlson (1) Seattle
This is a good fit as Carlson should be able to garner significant playing time early on and should get plenty of opportunities in Seattle’s pass-heavy attack. Carlson has great hands and is a great route runner, which is vital in Mike Holmgren’s intricate schemes. Carlson should be considered as a solid sleeper TE prospect and worthy of a late round selection in both re-draft and dynasty leagues.
2. Dustin Keller(2) New York Jets
Keller should have a good shot at starting early in his career, possibly by week one of 2008. Keller is basically a glorified wide receiver, which most wouldn’t consider a reason for downgrading him for fantasy purposes, but the fact that his blocking ability is below average at best may cost him a few snaps. I would consider him a fringe back-up tight end and merits no more than a very late selection in dynasty formats.
3. Fred Davis (4) Washington
To put it kindly Davis is an interesting selection for the Redskins. Chris Cooley has established himself as one of the more reliable fantasy tight ends. I can’t see Davis beating out Cooley baring injury and I can’t see Davis being worth a selection in any fantasy format.
4. Martellus Bennett (5) Dallas
Dallas traded back-up tight end Anthony Fasano to the Dolphins on Friday and replaced him with Bennett late in the second round. Bennett is a great athlete and has a much higher ceiling than Fasano. Bennett won’t have much of an impact as a rookie and is basically undraftable unless Pro Bowl starter Jason Witten goes down with an injury.
5. Brad Cottam (3) Kansas City
The big tight end from Tennessee was one of the hottest prospects following his great combine performance. Cottom will be groomed to eventually replace Tony Gonzalez, but likely won’t get enough looks to merit a selection in any fantasy format this season.
