It seems that recently April 1st (April fools day) has lost some of its luster as a mainstream holiday. In the NFL though, the month of April is all about fooling anyone and everyone in terms of what players teams are targeting in the NFL draft.
It’s pretty obvious that letting the other 31 teams know who you want on draft day would be about as stupid as telling your girlfriend or wife the women you would pursue if you weren’t with them. The interesting thing is if you read between the lines you can figure out what teams are really thinking.
When a player is brought in by a team that doesn’t fit their draft positioning or their team needs they are most likely trying to throw other teams off the scent of their actual plans. Now, if a team brings in a player that fits both need and looks to be a good value in their spot, it could lead many to believe they are targeting that specific player. The problem is there are often many players who fit the bill and usually a team will bring in every player that would be a logical selection for them.
This is where it helps to use a bit of analytical thinking when reading, hearing and analyzing NFL decision makers’ quotes regarding prospects and their workouts. If a coach or general manager gushes about a specific player there’s just as good a chance they aren’t targeting him as if they use a lot of ambiguous language.
Teams use the media as a tool, keep their true plans hidden. Now there are instances were media members have gotten insider info. The NFL Network’s draft analyst Mike Mayock is well known for having fairly reliable inside sources, but most of his best info is acquired right before the draft and even he is led astray by some in the stagnant month we now must endure before teams start selecting players. Don’t get me wrong. I think most media members do a pretty good job of sifting through the b.s. and figuring out what pick make the most sense for their team. Usually though, this is because of their own due diligence and not because they are given any type of insider info from the team they cover.
Teams will also run misdirection on the prospects themselves. Think of all the stories you hear from players who were “promised” they would be selected by a particular team but weren’t. While that may seem heartless it’s just part of the game teams play with each other. It can also be seen as a test of loyalty. If said prospect leaks the information to the media would you trust him as much?
The strategy of trying to read into what a team says to anyone is impossible. What you have to do is look beyond the jargon and look at the big picture. A team’s current personnel and off-season roster moves will always tell you more than any front office member will. The masters like Bill Parcells will throw so much political jargon at you that three different experts can end up thinking Parcells’ team will be taking three different players come draft day. Coincidentally or not that’s the exact point we’re at now with Miami. This is exactly what Parcells wants and for good reason. I’ve mentioned a few time on this site that I think Parcells is using the possibility that Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan could be selected by the Dolphins as a ploy to get a team (Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens) to trade up for the number one selection. If you look at the Dolphins roster they have a ton of needs and any opportunity for them to trade down would be a blessing. I’ll admit that Ryan is a possibility and perhaps my own personal bias against the former B.C. signal caller (I think he’s solid, but not worthy of a top 5 selection) may be skewing my judgment, but I’m not the only one who thinks Ryan isn’t a franchise type signal caller.
This month I’m betting the Ryan to the Dolphins talk heats up considerably, as well as many other rumors that shouldn’t be trusted. So keep in mind when you hear a sound-bite or read a quote regarding the draft this month, take it for what it is, useless political jargon, not much different than that which will come from the mouths of those puppets who are running for president.